If pressure is earned, the Loons must be a hell of a breadwinner because no team in MLS has more on the line on Decision Day.
Much of the pressure is self-inflicted: The Loons gave away 10 points after the 80th minute, with an additional three lost to goals in the 79th. Had they given away even half as many points, they’d be safely in the playoffs already with an outside shot at hosting their first series.
Of course, had they not regrouped after getting manhandled 5-1 at LAFC and seeing coach Adrian Heath fired to end a seven-match unbeaten streak by pummeling the Galaxy 5-2, there wouldn’t be any pressure either: They’d have nothing to play for.
Unfortunately for the Loons, for their season to continue, they’ll be dependent on results out of their control. The good news is that they only need one of several things to happen to advance; they’re not forced to hope for some bizarre and unlikely combination of outcomes.
So here’s the lay of the land ahead of Decision Day.
Winning Isn’t Everything, It’s the Only Thing
Sporting KC and Minnesota United are level on points, but two behind San Jose and Dallas, so the only result that matters for either side is a win. It’s a huge ask for Minnesota: The Loons are 1-0-8 in Kansas City since joining MLS — the only win coming in the 2020 MLS Cup playoffs — and 0-0-2 this season against SKC having lost 3-0 away and 1-0 at home already.
If there’s a glimmer of hope for the Loons in that record, it’s this: Heath had a tendency to use KC away as a chance to rest starters, try new tweaks, and give players who had otherwise been forgotten. To wit, Thomas Chacon made just six appearances for the Loons and two of them were at Kansas City.
A draw does neither team any good, so both will be playing to win, much to the absolute delight of MLS, Apple, and their advertisers.
It’s Not 7-11, It’s One Better
The Loons are absolutely rooting for Austin to beat San Jose, since that would give them a clear path to the playoffs. However, if they lose to Kansas City and Austin does beat San Jose, the Verde will leapfrog the Loons into 11th, pushing Minnesota down a place from where they are now. The difference between 11th and 12th is irrelevant, but it’s a theoretically possible outcome and I am nothing if not complete. Moving on.
If the Loons draw, or if they lose and Austin fails to win, they finish in 11th.
Now things get interesting, meaning it’s time to brush up on MLS’ tiebreakers.
Points are obviously the first criteria, but after that comes wins, followed by goal differential (GD). Most European leagues use goal differential as their first tiebreaker, so fans often incorrectly assume it’s the case in MLS. C’est la vie.
On the off chance teams are still tied through three categories, goals scored and fewest disciplinary points come next, but they mercifully won’t be involved this year.
Here’s how the relevant part of the table looks right now:
| Position | Team | Points | Win | Draw | Loss | GD |
| 7 | Portland | 43 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -10 |
| 8 | Dallas | 43 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 |
| 9 | San Jose | 43 | 10 | 13 | 10 | -4 |
| 10 | SKC | 41 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -5 |
| 11 | Minnesota | 41 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -3 |
Yes, SKC are ahead of the Loons on the table, but the Loons have to win, which means the Wizards Sporting has to lose, so they’re out of the equation from here on out.
Assuming the Loons win, they’ll finish the season with 44 points, 11 wins, and a goal differential of -2 or -1 in all likelihood — they may beat Sporting KC, but it’s unlikely they’ll really blow them out.
At that point, they would finish ahead of any of San Jose, Dallas, and Portland that fail to win. If any of them lose, the Loons move ahead of them on points, but even a draw isn’t good enough to keep them ahead. Minnesota would hold the tiebreaker over Dallas and San Jose by virtue of having 11 wins to their 10 — this is why Dallas’ draw with Colorado over the weekend was even more damaging than just the two dropped points — and the goal differential tiebreaker over Portland.
May the Odds Be Ever In Your Favor
So how likely is it that the Loons make the playoffs?
Vegas is giving the Loons just a 27% chance of getting the win that sets the whole playoff machine into motion — by far the least likely element of the whole scenario. If they do that, however, they’re very likely to get the help they need.
Odds below are the implied odds based on the lines set by MGM as of Sunday night and don’t have to add up to 100%.
Houston @ Portland:
Houston wins: 33%
Draw: 29%
Portland wins: 45%
Dallas @ L.A. Galaxy
Dallas wins: 36%
Draw: 26%
LA wins: 45%
Austin @ San Jose
Austin wins: 21%
Draw: 23%
San Jose wins: 64%
If you think the Loons are going to finish all the way in 7th by the easiest path (Loons win, Portland draws, Dallas loses, and San Jose draws), you might want to get down to Diamond Joe’s just across the border into Iowa. A $100 bet would net you a $12,236.17 payout.
So the Loons aren’t in control, it is possible that San Jose, Portland, and Dallas all win leaving Minnesota outside looking in (betting $100 on that outcome would yield a $3337.70), but it’s unlikely. If the Loons take care of their business in Kansas City, it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t get at least one favorable result elsewhere and find themselves in MLS’ new wild card round.