I love the way Jon Marthaller talked about the Loons entering their third season of the season in his excellent piece this week. Read his piece; I’ll take a different angle on the idea: Given that all the parts are still part of the same overarching work, the three-in-one form of Minnesota in 2024 resembles a concerto.
In the first movement, the tempo was high and the feeling was buoyant. Cameron Knowles led a team that lacked pretty much everything canonically needed for success in MLS to an outrageous start, then handed the reins – drama-free – to Eric Ramsay, who continued the team’s baffling run of success.
Movement two dropped the tempo. Injury, national team duty, and the fabled regression monster ground the team nearly to a halt.
Suddenly a season that looked like it was a new dawn for a fan base that had suffered through some rough seasons turned dark: winless in nine – three points out of a possible 27 – including the worst losing streak in team history. Players playing wildly out of position. The team both finding new and exciting ways to lose (dropping a game 5-3 in Dallas despite running them off the field according to xG) and meeting some familiar feelings along the way (managing absolutely nothing against Seattle).
Traditionally, the third movement of a concerto calls back to the first: Up-tempo, bright, all’s well that ends well. Can the Loons pull that off?
If they manage to turn the tide on the season once again and make a move into a solid playoff position, the talk will be about the energy injected into the team with their active transfer window. If they can’t, questions about too many changes at once, waiting too long to add a sporting director and coach, and too little depth will ring out during the long offseason.
Everything is ready for the finale movement. So let’s set the stage.
Thanks to MLS’ bloated playoff scheme, Minnesota sits in the last playoff spot with a two-point lead over Austin F.C. No one currently behind them has a game in hand, so if the Loons miss the playoffs it will be cleanly and clearly because someone else got more points than they did in the games remaining.
The 2023 team, which found itself in a similar position at this point in the season, collapsed rather plaintively, going 1-3-5 down the stretch. In their defense, they played seven of their final nine games against teams that would go on to make the playoffs, a fact that is tempered by the fact that four of those games were against teams the Loons could have replaced in the playoffs had they done their business.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the Loons’ final nine games:
Game against teams in the playoffs: 5 (SEA, CIN, COL, @RSL, @VAN)
Games against teams out of the playoffs: 4 (@SJ, STL x 2, @SKC)
This is a tougher road to the playoffs for the Loons than last year was. Seattle is finally getting healthy, Cincinnati has Supporters Shield hopes, and the three mountain-adjacent teams are all playing very solid soccer this year.
This year’s team is better than last year’s. Remember: It wasn’t a stroke of madness that saw Ethan Bristow get six starts last year, it actually made sense. But that team entered their crucible with 35 points and Ramsay’s edition have just 33.
If the Loons have a saving grace, it’s this: Only Austin and Dallas pose a serious threat to their playoff spot. The only one of Austin’s last nine games not against a current playoff team is away to Nashville and Dallas faces six playoff teams of their nine. No one has an easy path, but this will likely come down to Minnesota and Dallas.
Trying to guess how this is going to go feels like a fool’s errand given how much the squad has changed since the last episode, but I am nothing if not a great fool, so here we go.
Any Point is a Good Point
Seattle Sounders (Aug. 24)
Seattle is a team on the rise, going 6-1-1 in their last eight in MLS, and while they were unceremoniously bounced from Leagues Cup by LAFC, they looked much more cohesive than they had at the season’s start. Pedro de la Vega is healthy – the Loons saw first hand what he can do in their Leagues Cup loss — and this will be the Loons’ new players’ introduction to MLS. Trial by fire doesn’t usually go very well.
I do think the psychological barrier about playing Seattle only exists with the fanbase now, so while I fully expect the Loons to lose, I don’t think this is about how they always lose to Seattle so much as one team catching another at the wrong time.
F.C. Cincinnati (Sept. 18)
In another year, Cincinnati might use this game to rotate players, but if they harbor any serious hopes of chasing down Miami (and maybe LAFC) for the Shield, they’ll come to Allianz at full strength. They’ve also been better on the road than at home this year, going an amazing 9-2-1 away from home.
If results over the next couple weeks push them clearly out of the Shield race, maybe they do come in with a rotated squad and the Loons have a chance. Between now and then, they play at Miami and host Hell is Real, so it’s possible, but the Loons will still be heavy underdogs.
RSL Away (Oct. 2)
The Loons played a terrific game against RSL earlier this season, a 1-1 draw at Allianz, but playing at altitude is brutal. RSL is 8-1-2 at home this season and while they did lose Andres Gomez to an $11 million transfer, they’re not hurting for talent. A draw is always good on the road, it’d be superb in this case.
Three Points or Bust
San Jose Earthquakes Away (Aug. 31)
San Jose proved to be the cure the Loons needed to finally break their losing streak and added no one of note during the transfer window. The Loons got better – or healthier at least – San Jose stayed the same, there’s no reason to expect a different result just because the game is in San Jose.
If there is any pressure on Minnesota here, it’s this: If the Loons don’t win here, the road gets a LOT tougher.
Sporting KC Away (Sept. 21)
Similarly, Sporting Kansas City is mired in the midst of a terrible season and didn’t really add anyone during the window that will help this season. They looked a little better heading into the Leagues Cup break (2-1-1) but it’s not hard to look better than their previous stretch of 2-2-12.
Yes, Children’s Mercy Park has been a house of horrors for the Loons and yes, Peter Vermes would love to spitefully put a dent in the Loons’ playoff hopes, but like San Jose, this is a game the Loons flat out must win if they have real playoff ambitions.
St. Louis City (Oct. 19)
Calling St. Louis at home on Decision Day a must-win is reflective of their current 0-6-6 road record, but it’s also about Minnesota’s ambition. If they’re fine slipping into the playoffs or perhaps even backing in, then a draw may do; if they want to get out of the first round, this is a momentum game they need to win outright – and three points won’t hurt for seeding.
The Crux
Nine points from their final nine games would leave the Loons on 42 points, a point better than last year but still below the line. Maybe they find money against Seattle, Cinci, or RSL, but I doubt it. So, these are the three games that will determine if the Loons make the playoffs and where they’ll land.
St. Louis City Away (Sept. 14)
I don’t know what to make of this one. On one hand, St. Louis has not been good this season, their -14 goal differential is the second-worst in the Western Conference, and this game will come on the back of Portland away, L.A. Galaxy at home, and New England away. On the other, they improved substantially during the transfer window and made it to the Leagues Cup quarterfinals. This team has underperformed this season, making it hard to tell how good they really are.
My gut says the Loons should get at least a point here. A good team goes down and gets all three, but I genuinely have no idea if the Loons are a good team.
Colorado Rapids (Sept. 28)
Colorado has been something of a surprise this season, making a nice run in Leagues Cup and currently sitting in fourth place in the Western Conference. This is a good team, they’ve earned the right to be called that, but two things make this a game Minnesota can steal:
- Colorado has been substantially better at home (8-2-3) than they have been on the road (4-2-7)
- They sold Moise Bombito in the transfer window and didn’t really bring anyone in.
Of all the games remaining, this one feels most in-the-balance. The Loons should approach this as a game they can win, but the Rapids are talented enough even without Bombito to steal a game like this on the road.
A draw is going to feel gross given when this game falls (immediately before the away trips to RSL and Vancouver) but at least it would move the Loons forward.
Vancouver Whitecaps Away (Oct. 5)
Vancouver feels like a trap. Outside of a rough patch in late April/early May when they went 0-3-3, they’ve been pretty consistently solid if unspectacular. Ryan Gauld and Brian White are always a threat to score, Yohei Takaoka is an above average shotstopper, and the rest of the squad is smartly constructed. They’re beatable, sure, but in a game that’s fairly balanced, they’ve shown an ability this season to do enough to grab the extra goal.
The absolute worst-case scenario for the Loons would be to go into this game – a rather brutal introduction to long MLS travel days for some of their new players – absolutely needing three points. Being open at the back is a recipe for disaster against the Whitecaps, but the Loons wouldn’t have much of a choice.
This is the least likely of the three to result in points, but I also don’t see Vancouver running them off the field – unless Minnesota has failed to bank points elsewhere. This very well could be the type of game where, if the previous seven games have gone more or less as expected for both, a dull 1-1 draw where no one gets hurt could suit both just fine.
The Loons from act one can absolutely come out of this stretch with 12-13 points and make the playoffs respectably. The Loons from act two look a lot like the 2023 Loons did and falter early, making Decision Day theoretically exciting, but not actually so.
Nine points feels like the minimum with 12-13 a reasonable expectation. The former — or anything less, heaven forbid — should be considered a disappointment; if they can get the latter with some decent momentum, they should have a shot in the first round playoff matchup.
The third movement starts Saturday.
The stage is set/somebody’s going to do something someone else will regret