Just six games remain in Minnesota United’s MLS regular season. As things stand today, they’d get at least one more as one of two wild card teams in MLS’ revamped playoffs, but the west is just way too open to expect that to hold for another six weeks. The Loons have a grasp on the ninth spot, but sit just two points ahead of Dallas in 11th and four points behind Vancouver in fourth.
What do they need to do to qualify for the playoffs?
Looking at the last five years, it takes about 1.59 points per game (PPG) to host a playoff game and 1.22 PPG to finish ninth place, which is the last qualifying spot this year. Worth noting: I don’t put a ton of weight on that last number going forward since this will be the first year that the cutline is between ninth and 10th instead of both of those teams being well below it with nothing to play for in the last few weeks.
Though they’ve improved to 1.5 PPG since coming back from Leagues Cup, the Loons are currently running at 1.32 PPG for the season as a whole. Using history as our guide, from the last six games the Loons likely need 10 points to host a full playoff series, eight points to stay on their pace (which puts them in the wild card, likely as the host), and seven points to fall over the line in last place. But focusing solely on the table as it stands today and looking at the teams around Minnesota right now, I highly doubt that seven points is enough unless Kansas City and Dallas completely combust.
Who stands between the Loons and the postseason?
At first glance, the Loons don’t have an awful road ahead. They have two games against teams at the top of the table, one at home against one about at their level, and three against teams not currently in the playoff positions. Specifically, here are their opponents the rest of the way along with their current position in the conference standings.
At L.A. Galaxy (13)
St. Louis (1)
San Jose (7)
At LAFC (2)
L.A. Galaxy (13)
At Sporting KC (10)
Great, get 7-9 points from the games against SKC and LAG, 1 or 3 from the home game against San Jose, stay healthy against LAFC and St. Louis, and gear up for another postseason. Dig into the numbers beyond table position and Minnesota’s remaining schedule shows its true face: Finishing this stretch in playoff position will be a huge challenge.
Before we look too far ahead, let’s start with Wednesday’s opponent:
Los Angeles Galaxy
The Galaxy should be the Loons’ easiest opponent and they get to face them twice. LA are almost dead in the water, sitting in 13th place on just 30 points or 1.11 PPG — a more useful measure than pure points considering teams in the west have played anywhere from 27 to 29 games. But the key word there is almost. In the words of Miracle Max, they’re only mostly dead.
The Galaxy went just 3-7-9 (win-draw-loss) in the season’s first two months, good for a dismal 0.84 PPG. Since then, they’ve gone 4-6-2 or 1.5 PPG, netting the same number of points from the last 12 games as they did from their first 19. As a full-season pace, 1.5 PPG would leave the Galaxy better than everyone else in the west outside of St. Louis, LAFC, and Vancouver. Essentially, the Galaxy have played as well since June 1 as the Loons have played since Leagues Cup ended. The old adage “it’s not who you play, it’s when you play them” has seldom been truer.
And the Galaxy have reason for belief beyond just their recent form: They largely control their own destiny. Of their remaining seven games, five come against teams immediately ahead of them in the standings. They may have simply given themselves too big a hole to climb out of with their early season misery, but they’re not going to lay down and die when they can drag so many other teams down with them. Yes, they’ve have taken just two points from their last three, but when those games were against Houston, St. Louis, and LAFC, I have trouble dinging them too much for slumping a bit.
The biggest thing to watch for in both games between LA and Minnesota: The Galaxy have scored multiple goals in every game since the end of the Leagues Cup save one, a credible 0-0 draw with Houston, while the Loons have yet to give up more than one in a game across the same period.
No team has generated more shots from open play this season than the Galaxy have, so there will be substantial pressure on the Loons’ defenders not to switch off when the ball is in play, something they’ve been guilty of quite a few times this season. If they can do that, the bunker-and-counter gameplan that has served Minnesota so well on the road this season should set them up for success once again.
The Loons can do themselves a world of good by winning on Wednesday in LA. The points are obviously important in and of themselves, but a win also increases the likelihood that LA will rest players when they came to Allianz on Oct. 7, the Loons’ last home game of the season.
The Galaxy are favored in this first matchup, but very narrowly at +105 and that fits with my thinking. In 100 simulations, the Galaxy win more often than the Loons do, but this is a one-off. I’ve gone back and forth with how I think this match will end, though I really don’t see it ending as a draw. If the Loons maintain their defensive composure, I think they’ll punish Los Angeles on the counter. If LA get an early goal, Minnesota could struggle to keep them from adding more as they try to keep the ball.
Prediction: Best case scenario, this game looks like a slightly more frantic version of the win in Houston. Worst case, it’s Austin away loss all over again with the Loons failing to take their chances and LA finishing theirs. Betting on the Loons to keep their composure feels foolish, but I think they can hold down parity long enough to get the first goal and then hold on to win the game 2-1.