Having spent more time than is healthy looking at the Loons’ 2022 season, I’m starting to feel like it was me, not the Loons attack, that failed to score at Portland. It’s like Neitzche once said: “if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.”
But the 2023 season and more hopeful days are at hand, so let’s get out of the abyss for now and gaze at some sunny skies.
One thing that seems true based on the Loons’ offseason is that they’re looking at last year’s roster and expecting growth. They patched the biggest holes in defense — a young left-footed center back and depth across the backline — but the attack is very nearly the same, which leads me to believe that they’re looking at players like Bongokuhle Hlongwane, Mender Garcia, and new addition Cameron Dubar and seeing substantial room for growth and reason to believe they’ll get there.
Interestingly, in his preseason breakout player predictions MLSsoccer.com’s Matt Doyle didn’t pick any of those players or even an attacker, he settled on DJ Taylor as the Loons’ selection. Where players on the list like Cade Cowell, Pedro Vite, and Benjamin Cremaschi were lauded with promises of highly lucrative moves to Europe or national team call-ups, Taylor’s upside was doubling his counting stats while remaining an above-average MLS fullback.
Taylor had one (deflected) goal and two assists last year; it’s not much of an upside to hope on.
While I actually like Taylor quite a bit, owing to his work rate and the way he has improved his game to be a more attacking fullback, I think the Loons have much better options as breakout candidates.
One note: These aren’t predictions, they’re marks I’m using to differentiate between a player who makes a solid improvement and one that goes from being a strong asset to the squad to being a potential star.
Bongokuhle Hlongwane
Last Season: 2 goals, 4 assists in 1598 minutes for MNUFC in MLS
What Might a Breakout Look Like? Hlongwane was lively for the Loons from his first appearance, but took eight appearances to record his first assists and 22 games to get his first goal before getting hurt and missing most of the end of the season. When healthy, his positioning was excellent and he carried the ball well, but there wasn’t much connection with the rest of the offense: Despite strong numbers in progressive passes received and progressive carries, Hlongwane was in the 18th percentile for passes attempted and just the 13th for shot-creating actions.
With Robin Lod currently tabbed to take over Emanuel Reynoso’s spot in the center of the attack, Hlongwane should get plenty of time and space on the right wing to make his impact. If he can connect more consistently with Lod, Luis Amarilla, and Franco Fragapane, there’s no reason he couldn’t add to his assist count in 2023 — which the Loons will need him to do without the singular focal point of Reynoso in attack.
Anything shy of 10 goals isn’t likely to get national attention, but if he can get to seven goals and six assists, that will be a huge boost for the Loons and draw a few eyes to his performance. Robin Lod had 13 G+A in his best season for the Loons on the wing, that should be the bar for Bongi’s breakout.
Cameron Dunbar
Last Season: 12 goals, 3 assists in 2,856 minutes for LA Galaxy II in USL Championship
What Might a Breakout Look Like? The Loons have made no bones about it, they’re very high on the 20-year-old Dunbar, whom they acquired from L.A. Galaxy very early in the offseason. The deal didn’t directly involve Aziel Jackson, but quotes at the time made it clear that the Loons didn’t believe having both in the system was wise. Dubar tore up USL Championship last season as evidenced by his production but making the jump to MLS is always challenging.
It’s not yet clear how much time the Loons will give him; it likely depends how poor a start they get off to and whether they can bring in the famed two to three players they seem to always need.
If Dunbar gets minutes close to what Hlongwane had last season and continues his excellent movement in the box, then 4-5 goals seems possible. Rather than a full-on breakout, the combination of a likely lack of playing time and moving up a league leads me to believe we’ll see flashes of what’s to come and he’ll be 2024’s breakout player of the year.
Hassani Dotson
Last Season: 1 goal, 2 assists in 630 minutes for MNUFC in MLS
What Might a Breakout Look Like? In a post-Reynoso world, Dotson is likely the most important player the Loons have as they look to replace Rey’s influence. He’s an incredibly creative player that can move the offense up the field quickly, play a sharp pass, and then get open again to receive it, all while offering the Loons more defensively than anyone else in the crowded midfield outside of maybe Kervin Arriaga.
Initially, I had Dotson’s breakout looking like a coronation of the Loons’ future #10, but the more I watched his play from last year and dug into his stats, the more I think judging his arrival by goals and assists is missing the biggest parts of what he does.
Cristian Roldan has only had more than 10 G+A twice in his career, but is the drive of the Sounders’ attack, freeing Jordan Morris, Raul Ruidiaz, and Nico Lodiero to move into their attacking positions quickly before the defense gets set. That’s the kind of role Dotson could thrive in and one that could turn the Loons’ speedy wings into nightmares for opposing fullbacks, which would then keep them from venturing into the attack as readily.
In 2019, Jan Gregus gave the Loons 10 G+A in the best season they’ve had from a true box-to-box midfielder. Dotson won’t get there, but if he gets to Roldan’s 8 G+A from last season, that’s a breakout for sure, and one the league will notice.
Mender Garcia
Last Season: 6 goals, 1 assist in 1845 minutes for MNUFC in MLS and Once Caldas in Colombia’s Premera A.
What Might a Breakout Look Like?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
With every other player on this list, I can clearly see how they’ll impact a game assuming they’re playing at their top level. Garcia is tougher. At Once Caldas, he played as a striker, either left-sided in a 4-4-2 or alone up top in a 4-2-3-1, though at least once he also played on the right in a 4-3-3, which may come down to how the game was captured in the stats rather than an actual positioning. After coming to Minnesota, he played right wing, left wing, and forward, though all of that should be seen through the lens of a team that was battling injuries at every position except goalkeeper more than a sign of what the Loons will do with him this season.
In his most impressive outing, the loss away to Portland, Garcia harried the Timbers’ defense, making the kind of thankless runs great strikers make just in case the ball comes their way. He took five shots in that game, two on target, and looked like the Loons’ most dangerous player opposite Amarilla in a 5-3-2 — the kind of formation the Loons may trot out on the road this season as they look to bunker and counter. The rest of his season was more muted and he scored his only goal with his only other shot on target.
What does that mean for a breakout year? If he’s starting up top, he has to score. Simple as. Anything less than 7-8 goals from him is going to be tough to stomach assuming he gets concerted playing time — especially since he took a penalty for the Loons this preseason.
Here’s the other thing: Garcia’s not what you’d call a facilitator. Here’s his passing numbers from his 532 minutes in MLS — not a huge sample, to be sure, but enough to be worried about.
Since he’s unlikely to be a dual threat attacker, a breakout from Garcia starts with double digit goals. Taxi Fountas turned heads with his 12g, 1a (and using a racial slur, but Garcia should forego that) and I think Garcia will need to do the same if he’s not adding much else. I don’t think he will, but that’s what it would take to really break out.
The Loons have other players I’ll be watching closely: Micky Tapias, Carlos Leatherman assuming he gets a first-team contract, Tani Oluwaseyi, etc. but there’s too much unknown about their trajectory to do any real forecasting.
Dotson’s breakout year seems the most realistic to me and would materially improve the team’s chances of making the playoffs, but a Garcia breakout would likely move the team forward the most. That said, I’m taking the goldilocks approach and going between the two and taking Hlongwane as my breakout player for the Loons this season.