What a difference a year makes.
One year ago today, Adrian Heath was relieved of his duties by Minnesota United. For many of us, this move was long overdue and could have come for myriad reasons, but there is no question the way the 2023 season ended is what sealed his fate.
His coddling of Emanuel Reynoso was understandable on some level, Rey was the team’s best player by a fair ways and a player who could change a game almost single-handedly, but it cost him the locker room. The season itself wasn’t that remarkable until the end, the team started hot going unbeaten in their first five games – and would have been 4-0-1 if not for a Mikael Marques six minute disasterclass – they followed it up with a few weird losses and then just seemed to drift.
Going back and looking at the summer results, it’s all just very Loons. Couple good wins (4-1 over Portland, 3-0 away to Houston) and some credible results mixed in with some really weird losses including a pair to Austin, who was terrible. The Loons entered the final part of their season on one of their better streaks of the season: winning away to Houston, drawing LAFC at home – their strong Leagues Cup run goes here – beating NYCFC 2-0 in New York, drawing Seattle at home, and walloping Colorado at home 3-0. They were sitting on 35 points and honestly felt like they were trending in the right direction.
Technically speaking, Heath finished the season 0-3-4 before handing things over to Sean McCauly, but the team melted down en route to a 1-3-5 finish, “highlighted” by Ethan Bristow’s horrorshow against LAFC that resulted in a 1-5 loss and the end of Heath’s tenure.
The game before that, a 1-1 draw against San Jose, remains the most lifeless display I have seen from Minnesota. Teemu Pukki scored a 4th minute goal to set the Loons on their way, but 12 minutes later, the Quakes equalized. In the 36th minute, Ismael Tajouri-Shradi had a very speculative shot saved. It was the Loons’ last shot until 71st and their last shot on target until the 87th. This was a must-win game, at home, and the Loons just… let it go.
So why bring that up? Why call forth the ghosts of a season better left forgotten?
Because the difference in how the 2023 season ended and how the 2024 edition is closing could hardly be larger.
The 2024 Loons had fewer points going into their last nine than the ‘23 Loons did, 32 to 35. They had no Leagues Cup run to kick them off and they had scarcely put the six-game losing streak and nine-match winless run behind them. They came out of the Leagues Cup break with Seattle waiting for them and, predictably, lost. The first game of their sprint finish and they stumbled out of the blocks.
It is worth noting, however, that they’d outplayed Seattle for large stretches of the game. Seattle was gifted a goal by Jefferson Diaz, who was playing in his first MLS game, and got another from Albert Rusnak on a shot from outside the box that went in off the post. The Loons out xG’d the Sounders 2.1 to 1.5, a far cry from the 0.2 to 2.2 xG in the 6/15 game in Seattle or the 1.3 to 2.9 xG loss Seattle gave them in Leagues Cup. It was better, if still not good enough.
Including that loss to Seattle – since it’s part of their final nine and apples to oranges comparisons do no one any good – Eric Ramsay has guided the Loons to a 5-1-2 finish with a game to go. Not only have they won the two must-win games they’ve had so far (at San Jose and at KC) they’ve also won all three of the games I felt like they could theoretically win but would have to struggle for (Colorado at home, at St. Louis, and most recently at Vancouver).
They haven’t allowed a goal in 4.5 games, over 400 minutes of game time, and only twice during that stretch has an opponent shot from an average distance that would put them inside the box. The defense has been superb, even as Miguel Tapias goes through one of his worst periods since joining Minnesota.
In previous seasons, if the team’s principle starter went down with injury and their replacement wasn’t up to the task, the penalty was severe. This season, D.J Taylor hasn’t started a match since July 7, and summer signing Matus Kmet has been working primarily with the Twos. If Loons fans had been told that the critical part of their season would depend on Carlos Harvey and Sang-Bin Jeong defending on the right (with help from Diaz), few if any would have been excited about that.
But here they are, everything falling into place at the right time.
With one home game left in the regular season, Minnesota has gone from the fringes of the playoffs to being guaranteed to host at least one game. If everything breaks their way in other games, they could finish as high as fifth – provided they beat St. Louis on Decision Day.
In both 2023 and 2024, Minnesota had stretches where they looked superb and stretches where they looked as much like they were beating themselves as their opponents were beating them. Both seasons saw Reynoso’s saga take over the coverage of the team for a period and both saw disappointing seasons from the team’s DP striker.
But for all their similarities, here at the end of the regular season, fortunes have diverged wildly and with them, hopes for the future. If the playoffs started today, the Loons would face LAFC in a best-of-three series, though with Houston (one of the two teams above the Loons they could theoretically pass( facing the LA Galaxy, it seems almost more likely that Minnesota would finish the year in sixth, setting up a date with the Seattle Sounders once again.
Would the Loons be favored in that series? Of course not, nor should they be.
Would Seattle be disappointed to draw one of the hottest teams in MLS as a reward for a very good season? I suspect they would be.
Ramsay has already broken the regular season curse in Kansas City. That there is even a possibility he could do the same in Seattle is nothing short of remarkable.
What a difference a year makes.